Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald Poll: Trump Building Lead in NH

Oct 20, 2015

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Trump Political Poll

This morning Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald released the most recent Presidential Poll for the Republican candidates leading up to the 2016 New Hampshire primary. The results indicate that Donald Trump has emerged as the party’s clear frontrunner in New Hampshire with 36% of likely Republican voters identifying him as the candidate most likely to win the GOP Nomination. The release of the Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald Poll took place at 9:30 am during a live broadcast on Boston Herald radio, WMEX 1510AM and WCRN 830AM.

More than one-fourth (28%) of likely Republican primary voters identified Donald Trump as their candidate of choice if the primaries were held today. Ben Carson placed second at 16% and Carly Fiorina was third with 10%. Governor Jeb Bush (9%), and Ohio Governor John Kasich (6%) rounded out the top five candidates.

Donald Trump phoned into Herald Radio this morning to discuss the results with hosts Jaclyn Cashman and John Sapochetti.The innovative partnership between the Boston Herald and Franklin Pierce University also afforded Ron Cooper, a freshman at Franklin Pierce University the opportunity to ask Donald Trump a question.

Trump credited his time spent in New Hampshire for the increase in both his poll numbers and favorability rating (55%), as well as the decrease in his unfavorable ratings from 46% in August to 42% in this most recent poll.

Trump says that Granite Staters are just getting to know him and he feels “tremendous love in the room” during his campaign stops. “I like the people and they like me,” said Trump of New Hampshire residents.

Another big winner in the poll is physician Ben Carson who registered 16% in the poll, up 12-points from August, and also surged in favorability from 55% in August to 69%. Carson boasts the highest favorability rating amongst all GOP candidates, with Carly Fiorina in second at 60% and Florida Senator Marco Rubio in third with 59%.

Several candidates lost ground in this most recent poll. Governor Kasich dropped from 12% to 6% (down 6-points), Texas Senator Ted Cruz is down 5-points (and Governor Bush (down 4-points) since the last poll in August, 2015.

The results also show that several candidates register high negatives, including frontrunner Donald Trump (42% unfavorable), Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (47% unfavorable), South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham (46% unfavorable), former New York Governor George Pataki (46% unfavorable), and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (43% unfavorable).

While Donald Trump has expanded his lead over the field, the poll suggests that the race is far from over, indicating many republican voters could change their minds:

… the electorate remains highly fluid. Two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters report that they could change their mind (67%) between now and the election. Only 33 percent of Republican primary voters reported that they have made a firm choice of who they intend to vote for in the primary. As shown above, at this point in time, support for almost all of the candidates under investigation is subject to change between now and the New Hampshire primary early next year.

The poll was conducted October 14-17, 2015, by political pollster Kelly Myers, president of RKM Communication and a Fellow at the university’s Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communications. The survey is based on a sample 440 likely Republican presidential primary voters in New Hampshire. 

The full report is available.
NH Poll Results October 2015

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